CEO's Market Wrap | Winter 2026

For property markets, the immediate impact is clear: borrowing capacities are being rigorously tested, and decisions are becoming increasingly measured, cautious and strategy-driven.

That caution has been amplified by the gap between the budget's announcement and actual law, with contested tax reforms currently sitting before a Senate committee. Moving into a critical voting window between 22 June and 2 July 2026, before Parliament rises for the winter break, nothing is fully locked into legislation just yet. Barry Plant directors are already reporting that buyer activity has slowed as this policy uncertainty shapes market behaviour. This does not point to a market collapse, but it does suggest many participants are taking a more considered approach, reassessing their budgets and taking more time before making a move.

Even so, Melbourne's market continues to show signs of underlying resilience, resulting in a highly fragmented, two-speed market. Rather than a uniform cooling, different areas are acting very differently, with performance behaving in local pockets. Existing investment properties that retain grandfathered tax treatments may actually become tightly held assets, potentially reducing listing volumes in established suburbs. In contrast, greenfield developments, outer growth corridors, and well-presented homes priced under one million dollars continue to transact very well.

The rental market also remains an important pillar supporting investor confidence. While higher holding costs, land tax obligations, and compliance pressures have caused a significant number of investors to exit the market over recent years, existing residential rental providers continue to see strong renter demand. If investor participation slows, rental shortages could worsen in locations where new supply is constrained, placing continued upward pressure on rents over time.

We have also seen an important structural development within the industry, marked by the rapid withdrawal of buyers' agents whose businesses were heavily exposed to investor demand. This shift reflects how quickly sentiment can move, but it also separates operators more clearly. Success is no longer about fast talk and assuming a property will sell itself; it is a time for quality businesses to really shine, relying on disciplined execution, expert negotiation, and honest vendor guidance.

Looking ahead, the property market regularly swings between extremes of sentiment before returning to more balanced conditions. While the market is currently waiting for legislative clarity, long-term fundamentals like land value, security, and population growth remain powerful wealth creation drivers. Opportunities remain for investors who stay focused on long-term fundamentals, realistic pricing and sound advice.