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House prices exceed predictions

Have you seen the latest forecasts for property prices around the country in response to the impact of the coronavirus?

As anyone who has followed the property market for any length of time will tell you, forecasts about the performance of the market tend to have two things in common…they usually underestimate the strength of buyer demand, and they often seem to be based on little more than guesswork. However, that trend seems to be even more apparent with some of the recent ‘guesses’!

You see, whilst many of the recent predictions on future property prices have had huge variations between them, they have all had one thing in common…they appear to have ignored the data on what is actually happening in the market right now.

One prime example has been provided by the August Housing Price report from Corelogic. This data provides an up-to-date picture of the property market up to the end of August, and reinforces what many of us with hands-on knowledge of the real estate market have been saying for quite a while…yes, property prices have declined, but nowhere near as much as most people might think.

The Corelogic report shows that the average property price across Australia fell by just 0.4% last month. When you expand your vision to look at the figures for the last three months, the decline in property values was just 1.7%. That’s a vastly different result to what many ‘experts’ would have had you believing in these challenging times.

The fact that social distancing restrictions have been much tighter here in Melbourne has ensured that property prices here recorded a more substantial drop than the national average. Yet despite all of the challenges for buyers and sellers, it was very reassuring to see that Melbourne’s property prices fell by just 3.5% over the same quarter, with a drop of 1.2% last month.

Last, but certainly not least, there was one key statistic from Corelogic that I think provides some important perspective in the current climate. It turns out that in the face of all the challenges that 2020 has provided, Melbourne’s median property value was still up by almost 6% at the end of last month when compared with the same month in 2019. You’re reading that correctly, property values here in Melbourne have increased over the past twelve months!

When you consider market statistics like this, it’s fair to say that anyone thinking of making a move this Spring should feeling reasonably confident about the move. The only factor that’s missing is a decision by the Victorian Government to ease restrictions on buyers and tenants, enabling them to arrange safe individual property inspections…but with any luck that decision may not be too far away.

In the meantime, if you’d like to have a chat about getting your property ‘market-ready’ in time for the launch of this year’s abbreviated Spring market, you can give the team at Barry Plant Moonee Valley a call on 9319 1700.

Regards,

Bill Karp

Director – Barry Plant Real Estate

Keilor East & Essendon